Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 01 Oct 2026 14:00 to Fri 02 Oct 2026 18:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 01 Oct 2026 13:42
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion (MD) was issued to highligt an evolving severe risk over E Spain. The validity of this MD does not match the severe risk.

During the night, the risk of slow moving / back-building convection increases over E-CNTRL Spain. A very moist/unstable onshore flow meets the orography to support scattered CI. In addition, coastal/mesoscale convergence zones serve as foci for back-building convection.

Forecast soundings show a modest LLJ (probably hampering the whole event) with plenty of deep tropospheric moisture and skinny CAPE profiles, so healthy warm rain processes are forecast. Hourly rainfall rates once again will range between 40-80 mm with 6 h amounts locally in excess of 200 mm. If such a cluster meets urban areas, dangerous flash flooding could become an issue.