Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 21 Jul 2026 16:00 to Tue 21 Jul 2026 19:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 21 Jul 2026 16:14
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion (MD) was issued to update the evolving severe risk. The validity of this MD does not match the severe risk, which lasts well into the night.

The level 2 and 3 placements remain on track.

Latest surface data reveals impressive BL moisture along the coasts with 2m dewpoints in the lower to mid twenties, creating 2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. Impressive shear (as discussed in the main outlook) is present, highlighted by the 12Z Pratica Di Mare sounding (4300 J/kg MLCAPE and 60 kt DLS). This environment is also present along the E coast of Italy.

Latest radar data reveals numerous organizing thunderstorm clusters along the N and CNTRL Apennines, which start to shift E/SE. Nowcast models takes this convection E/SE and show impressive supercells, crossing the Adriatic Sea into the overnight hours.

Expect all kind of extreme hazards (giant hail, gusts in excess of 30 m/s and heavy rain) and this is also valid for offshore areas! This is a serious situation and also valid later on also for parts of S Croatia into Montenegro.