Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 15 Jul 2026 12:00 to Wed 15 Jul 2026 15:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 15 Jul 2026 12:00
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A Mesoscale Discussion was issued to update the evolving severe risk for S Germany.

The stage is set for numerous severe multicells and supercells to evolve and shift E during the following hours as clearing helped anticipated CAPE build-up in this moist/unstable airmass.
Long and straight hodographs support splitting cells with right movers moving off the hodograph, ingesting enough helical inflow for robust updraft strength. Abundant mid-level CAPE and strong deep layer shear favor numerous longer lived severe supercells with large to very large hail (especially after cell merging) and severe gusts. Further N within the MD, thinner CAPE profiles probably tend to support more SPLASH events. Some locations see multiple rounds of severe convection well into the night, so local heavy rain will be another issue. Finally an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, although mixed BL keeps probabilities lowered (any event is more confined to storm-scale dynamics).