Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 15 Jul 2026 11:00 to Wed 15 Jul 2026 15:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 15 Jul 2026 11:24
Forecaster: PUCIK

... A rapid increase in the severe weather threat expected over the next couple of hours ...

Satellite and radar data show a fast moving cluster of cells towards the Alps. ICON-RUC EPS shows further development of storms over the Alps and the Apennines as the cluster approaches and crosses the area. Given favourable conditions for severe convective storms, supported both by model simulation and surface observations with T/Tds around 30/20, expect that severe weather threat will rapidly increase as storms cross the Alps. Given 0-6 km bulk shear of around 25 m/s, we are still looking at well-organised storms, first in supercell convective mode with severe wind gusts and very large hail threat. RUC especially favours the supercell progression over the Apennines, then heading towards the lowlands. An upscale growth into a fast-moving linear segment with a substantial increase in the severe wind gust risk of 30+ m/s is still the most likely outcome of this scenario.