Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 14 Jul 2026 06:00 to Wed 15 Jul 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 Jul 2026 12:55
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for Germany to Czechia, Austria, parts of Italy into Slovenia and Croatia mainly for large to very large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain with a few excessive rain events not ruled out. A regional tornado risk exists over far S Austria into Slovenia.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Georgia into Volgograd mainly for hail, gusts and heavy rain.

SYNOPSIS

The blocking pattern persist as a stout ridge over the CNTRL Mediterranean extends N towards CNTRL Europe and gets in touch with an extensive anticyclone over far NW Europe. A retrograd moving upper low over N Germany evolves into an extensive channel with lowered geopotential heights, which points towards the Bay of Biscay, where it turns into the quasi-stationary trough.
Another upper trough over far E Europe into W Russia offers not much motion to the E.
No synoptic-scale front affects today's outlook.

DISCUSSION

... Germany to Italy and Austria to Slovenia/Croatia ...

A mixture of supergeostrophic increase of the wind field and a tightening height gradient between the blocking ride and the cut-off to the N result in an extensive area of unseasonable strong upper level winds in the 1-2 sigma range at 250 hPa. Overlap of steepened mid-level lapse rates and rich BL moisture create abundant CAPE, which, combined with the kinematics is favorable for organized convection.

The one area of concern once again exists along the S Alps into S Autria, where up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and elongated hodographs favor organized convection. Initial rather straight hodographs support splitting cells, which partially cluster into upscale growing line segments or stay semi-discrete as deviating (right moving) cells. Large/very large hail (hail diameter in excess of 5 cm) is likely next to severe gusts and heavy rain.

For far S Austria into far NE Italy and Slovenia, uncertainties increase reagrding CI. Some models hint at convective debris before noon affecting this area, which would decrease diabatic heating and CAPE build-up. This ould delay CI. However these signals are only sparse right now and we expect enough clearing for abundant CAPE-build up. If heating verifies, stronger hodograph curvature would point to a risk of organized line segments and embedded or semi-discrete supercells, producing swaths of large to very large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain. A tornado risk is also present with regionally lowered LCLs.

The other area of interest is CNTRL into S Germany. Numerous passing waves in this brisk W-erly flow regime cross a sheared and unstable warm sector with MUCAPE up to 1500 J/kg and 15-20 m/s DLS. In addition we expect a zonal low pressure channel over S Germany with convection to its S (N of the Alps) seeing shortened hodographs and some lingering capping issues next to convective debris from the previous night. Hence the severe risk is a bit uncertain just N of the Alps.
The main severe risk evolves N and along the low pressure channel (CNTRL into SW Germany). Contrary winds N of the low not only extend the hodograph further W, which improves DLS. This also increases SRH with regionally augmented directional (BL) shear. Subtle forcing on the synoptic-scale and broad BL moisture flux convergence N of the low pressure channel with diminishing CIN point to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening hours.
PWs in the 30-35 mm range and initial slow moving/stalling convection poses an excessive rain risk on a local scale next to hail. Isolated large hail is possible. Betimes, convection matures into numerous E/SE ward moving multicells and supercells, backed by active UH tracks in latest CAMs. Large hail and confined swaths of severe gusts are expected with this high-based convection and an ongoing heavy rain risk (mainly fo merging and clustering convection). This activity weakens during the night as it shifts towards Czechia and Austria, but keeps going on a regional scale with heavy rain the main hazard.

A level 2 was considered for parts of E CNTRL Germany but overall modest 4/5km AGL flow and manageable CAPE magnitude lowers confidence in extreme events. In addition, rapid cell interaction is forecast and finally UH tracks are mainly modest in strength and rather short.

... Spain to France ...

There is no substantial change to yesterday. We still sit E of the quasi-stationary trough (W of the Bay of Biscay) beneath a diffluent/slightly divergent upper SW-erly jet. The mix of an impressive N-ward fanning EML atop seasonable to regionaly substantial BL moisture create a very unstable warm sector, as MUCAPE runs in the 1000-3000 J/kg range over NE Spain into S France. However, the CAPE field remains very unsettled and dependant on regional BL moisture maxima (e.g. along the Pyrenees).

The main caveat remains capping issues as H85 temperature runs near record level for this time of year. There is not much change in intensity or placement of this impressive thermal ridge forecast, so there is no surprise about slim QPF signals in determinstic and ensemble fields for most of the day.
The main chance for CI will be spotty events along the orography, but mainly increasing overnight convection over the Bay of Biscay into W-CNTRL France. A lifting wave should spark scattered overnight storms. The elevated nature precludes anything severe.

We placed the lightning areas along the maxima of EPS/ENS QPFs and highlight the low-end risk of severe convection in case an updraft manages to mature (impressive CAPE and strong shear overlap = large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain). Confidence in CI however is very low with further drying in the updraft layer compared to yesterday and thickness values, which increase further during the day. We therefore did not issue any level areas for now.

... Georgia into Volgograd ...

A passing subtropical jet maximum atop seasonable moist air interacts with modest CAPE (400-800 J/kg) and is accompanied by DLS in excess of 20 m/s. This background supports numerous organized thunderstorms with hail, strong to severe gusts and isolated heavy rain. During the night the approaching upper trough from the W increases thunderstorm coverage and we could see a growing elevated and probably non-severe cluster atop the E Black Sea moving E/onshore. Heavy rain is possible.

... E Europe ...

A plume of MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg resides mainly over the Ukraine into E Poland, where slow moving convection brings a spotty heavy rain, hail and gust risk. Temporal upscale growth into cold pool driven convection is possible. Missing foci preclude a level area for now.