Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 16 Jun 2026 12:00 to Tue 16 Jun 2026 14:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 16 Jun 2026 12:27
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion (MD) was issued to update the severe risk.

Latest remote-sensing data reveals the arrival of mid/upper-level drying in WV (mainly above H5). MTG cloud type RGB still indicates lots of capping issues with extensive gravity wave coverage upstream of the cross-isetropic WAA regime with patches of more stratiform rain (covering S/CNTRL Germany).

With the clearing in the western part of the MD area, BL response is substantial, as some places have warmed up to 6K/2h and with a more modest 2K/2h 2m dewpoint increase. This pushes RUC MUCAPE locally already in excess of 1000 J/kg and modified AMDARs/soundings reveal not much CIN left in the western part of the MD. Kinematics are as favorable as expected, so lingering CIN/CI issues remain the main caveat right now.

CI could occur along the orography but also next to a tightening thermal (warm) front gradient, which runs from S North Rhine-Westphalia to the SE. However, best synoptic-scale lift is about to weaken from the W and capping relaxes only gradually from Luxembourg E. EPS spread of LPI remains tremendous and the same with UH tracks. One can however already exclude the more aggressive models, which tend to have a too warm BL bias right now (favoring more D2/RUC but a bit more aggressive).

Expect isolated CI during the following hours. Conditions still favor organized updrafts with hail, gusts and an isolated tornado threat. The activity shifts SE.

Further S (S-Germany), a few elevated cells can evolve with isolated hail.