Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 11 Jun 2026 06:00 to Fri 12 Jun 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 10 Jun 2026 15:48
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for parts of the Baltic States mainly for an augmented tornado risk.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 mainly for hail, strong to severe gusts and heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued for parts of the Balkan States mainly for hail, strong to severe gusts and heavy rain. An isolated tornado risk exists.

A level 1 was issued for NE Algeria and N Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe gusts.

SYNOPSIS

No major change to the general pattern over Europe. An eastward shifting, filling but also amplifying upper trough over E-CNTRL into SE Europe gets framed by two blocking anticyclones - one centered over the Iberian Peninsula with another one being analyzed over far NW Russia. A belt of brisk mid/upper level flow surrounds the trough, but best shear remains displaced from the CAPE-rich airmass for most parts. Hence only a few areas see some organized DMC probabilities.

A N-S aligned boundary bisects E Europe with a moist/unstable airmass to the E and a drier/cooler one to the W. This front arches back W towards the Adriatic Sea. A warm front affects far NW Europe and gets accompanied by a rapid mid-level warming, which lowers the general thunderstorm risk.

DISCUSSION

... Parts of the western Balkan States ...

An extensive CAPE plume with MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range covers (at least partially) Romania and Bulgaria all the way towards Montenegro. Most parts of this unstable airmass experiences very weak shear at most levels with slow moving pulsating convection the primary risk. Isolated severe is possible (e.g. hail, gusts and heavy rain) with a somewhat augmented risk mainly along the orography (including a low-end tornado risk with better 3km CAPE). Later in the day this risk spreads also away from the orography but clustering and some CIN issues should lower the general severe risk. A broad and low-end level 1 was added to cover this event.

A somewhat augmented severe risk exists from S Bosnia and Herzegovina/Montenegro into Kosovo and parts of Serbia. Here, stronger mid-level flow spreads E and intersects the usntable airmass. As the upper trough approaches from the NW, scattered CI occurs and numerous multicells/isolated supercells occur with strong to severe gusts (main risk), isolated large hail and heavy rain.

... Baltic States and surroundings ...

A PV induced wave amplification with attendant BL mass response (intensifying vortex) lifts N and is accompanied by a strong wind field, especially at low to mid-levels. A tongue of better moisture with modest CAPE values gets drawn towards the vortex with a confined overlap of better CAPE/shear.

There are some caveats like capping in the warm sector and a cold front, which is parallel aligned towards the background flow, so the risk for discrete storms in the open warm sector seems low right now.

One focus for CI resides ahead of the main cold front along a prefrontal confluence zone, where increased forcing should support organized convection.

The other area of concern arises over the Baltic States during the day, as a dry slot approaches from the S and affects the closing warm sector. Right now a pronounced drying also of the lower levels limits CI in NWP data, but forecast soundings indicate, that not much modification for DMC activity is needed. Any more persistent updraft, whose inflow roots down to the BL could ingest enough streamwise vorticity for updraft rotation. Dependant on the LCL height, a tornado is also not ruled out (next to hail and strong to isolated severe gusts).

In fact all models place a confined swath with very favorable CAPE/shear overlap somewehere E of the vortex' center, where LCLs are low and LL shear stays augmented. A broad/diffuse level 2 was added but nowcast assessment is needed for narrowing down the maximized severe risk with EZ offering strong/broad signals for tornadic activity, whereas ICON coming in less aggressive, dependant on the final track/strength of the LL vortex.

... Atlas Mountains ...

A hail/severe gust driven level 1 was issued as CI occurs during the grazing phase of an upper trough (to the NE) with high-based convection. Entrainment causes lowered ECAPE peaks, but this does not prevent any stronger updraft to produce large hail and severe downburst gusts.

... Lightning areas ...

Other highlighted areas see either weak CAPE or shear or both, so no organized DMC activity is forecast. Nevertheless, isolated severe cannot be ruled out (e.g. spotty heavy rain over NW Poland with slow moving convection).