Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 10 Jun 2026 14:00 to Wed 10 Jun 2026 16:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 10 Jun 2026 14:37
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A Mesoscale Discussion was issued for NE Italy to update an evolving severe risk.

Latest radar data reveals numerous growing and deviating supercells, wich now tap into an environment with modest CAPE (~1500 J/kg) but very strong shear (DLS around 30 m/s). In addition, a mid-level speed max now crosses the area and pushes 3km shear up to 25 m/s.
Modified 12Z sounding of Udine is prime for a serious hail/tornado setup with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, lowered LCLs (2m dewpoints in the upper tens) and impressive shear. A strong to isolated intense tornado event is possible next to very large hail and damaging gusts. This is a potential serious situation, so please stay informed by your local NMS.