Extended Forecast
Valid: Thu 14 May 2026 06:00 to Fri 15 May 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 May 2026 19:55
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued over N Italy mainly for large to very large hail, severe gusts, heavy rain and an isolated tornado risk.
A level 1 surrounds the level 2 with similar hazards but lowered probabilities.
More level 1 areas were added for S-CNTRL into SE Europe for hail, gusts, heavy rain and a coastal tornado event. An isolated very large hail event cannot be ruled out over N-CNTRL and far W Turkey.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
A deep cyclonic gyre is placed over N-CNTRL Europe, which steers numerous lower amplitude waves over W, S towards E Europe. Weak ridging persists over far E Scandinavia.
This pattern advects a cool and rather dry airmass towards CNTRL into E Europe, although cold mid/upper levels still assist in agile convective activity.
Over S Europe, a brisk W-erly mid/upper flow regime overspreads a marine airmass from the Mediterranean, offering regionally augmented probabilities for organized DMC activity.
... N Italy ...
Probably the most organized severe risk exists over N Italy. Lowering thickness and MSLP support persistent onshore flow of the mentioned marine airmass beneath cool mid/upper-levels. At the same time, dried NE-erly surface flow persistes over NE Italy, offering an elongated moisture flux convergence zone, which runs from the Piedmont into the S Lombardy, Veneto region and Emilia-Romagna. Impressive shear with DLS in excess of 20 m/s overspreads a confined belt with 400-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Forecast hodographs show elongated and curved signatures with strong SR inflow and rich streamwiseness.
CI is forecast around noon onwards as numerous supercells rapidly organize and shift NE. As they cross the MUCAPE plume, all kind of hazards are possible including large to very large hail, strong to severe gusts, heavy rain and an isolated tornado. This activity weakens as it exits the instability axis to the NE.
Uncertainties exist, if onshore flow materializes over SE Veneto and S Friuli-Venezia-Giulia as some models support this idea. In this case, supercells could move along that marine front into NE Italy with all kind of hazards possible. We kept this area in a level 1 for now due to lingering NWP issues but a level 2 upgrade may become necessary in further updates.
... Aegean Sea into Turkey ...
An eastward passing upper wave adds enough background lift for scattered CI during the daytime hours. Some uncertainties remain with the final path of the wave but most models converge to moderate MUCAPE within a strong shear environment. High based convection poses a hail and strong to severe gust threat and a broad level 1 was added for now. A few hail events in excess of 5 cm in diameter seem possible where CAPE peaks (e.g. far W Turkey and N-CNTRL Turkey).
Organized convection is also forecast along westward facing coastal areas of Sardegna, S-CNTRL Italy and along the E Adriatic Sea, where moisture flux converges into 400-800 J/kg MUCAPE as mid-levels stay cool. Isolated severe is possible (hail, gusts, heavy rain and a tornado or two).
Over E Europe, E of the wavy frontal bundary, a plume of moderate MUCAPE overlaps with moderate shear, enough for a few multicells or slow moving pulsating convection. Isolated instances of hail, gusts and heavy rain are possible but no focus exists for upgrading a certain area for now. The highest severe risk remains along/just E of the boundary over W Russia, where BL moisture/MUCAPE peaks and thermal wind shear offers somewhat better 3km/6km shear. A small level 1 may be added in later updates.
