Extended Forecast
Valid: Wed 06 May 2026 06:00 to Thu 07 May 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 04 May 2026 20:01
Forecaster: TUSCHY

Two level 1 areas were issued for parts of S-CNTRL into CNTRL Europe mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk.

A level 1 was issued for NE Belarus into Russia mainly for severe gusts and isolated hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Displaced from ongoing westerlies over Scandinavia, a transient weakening of the prevailing upper-level wave pattern is forecast over most of S/CNTRL Europe. The W-European trough weakens and lifts NE before new energy arrives from the W, which recharges the upper trough beyond 06Z. Ridging persists from the CNTRL Mediterranean NE into W Russia.

The lifting upper wave crosses a multi-day persisting quasi-stationary wavy frontal boundary, which runs from NW Russia into France.

Two broad level 1 areas were issued for the SE fringe of the lifting wave, where 35-50 kt mid-level flow overspreads a broad warm sector, characterized by seasonable moisture and a tad better mid-level lapse rates (especially downstream of the orography like the Alps). Overall however this weakly capped airmass will see messy thunderstorm coverage with lots of interacting convection. There are still lingering issues when and where temporal diabatic heating is forecast, which also depends on the exat track/intensity of the lifting wave.

In general, both level 1 areas will see adequate thermodynamic/kinematic background for organized multicells/isolated supercells with hail, isolated large as well. Strong to severe gusts and heavy rain are also possible with the latter risk f.ex. maximized over NW Italy. There, an isolated tornado risk is possible as well.

The airmass N of the Alps (SE Germany into Czechia) offers a deep/well mixed BL airmass, where high-based organized convection poses a severe gust/hail risk, especially if more robust mid-level CAPE materializes than currently forecast.

Later NWP cycles hopefully converge further to narrow down the rather broad level 1 areas.

Further E, from NE Belarus into Russia, a narrow moisture/CAPE tongue exists next to the boundary, where 3km and 6km shear remains augmented. Organized high-based convection could bring severe gusts and isolated hail.