Extended Forecast
Valid: Fri 17 Apr 2026 06:00 to Sat 18 Apr 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 15 Apr 2026 19:32
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of Turkey, Cyprus into Syria, Lebanon and Israel mainly for large to very large hail and severe gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An anomalous far S displaced upper trough exits far NE Libya and N Egypt NE into the Heroditus Basin before lifting N just E of Cyprus into CNTRL/E Turkey. Its interaction with another trough over E Europe creates an amplified trough pattern from NW Russia into SE Europe during the end of the forecast. Elsewhere, ridging persist with only marginal thunderstorm probabilities.

The main show will be the lifting trough over SE Europe, which pulls a moist and unstable airmass NE into the level 1 area. Steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the moist airmass which cause modest/elevated MUCAPE build-up atop the inversion of a pronounced low-tropospheric thermal ridge ahead of the vortex. Additional LL moisture advection occurs from the Red Sea towards Israel/Jordan into Lebanon and Syria, which improves MUCAPE during the night.

An intense subtropical jet stream accompanies this lifting trough and assists in very strong DLS in excess of 30 m/s along the E fringe of the vortex (next to 20 m/s 0-3 km shear). However the effective shear remains weaker with high-based convection forecast.

In general the main risk will be hail with numerous large hail events possible next to severe downdrafts, driven by high LCLs and effective sub-cloud evaporation. A very large hail event up to 5 cm in diameter cannot be ruled out for Cyprus, Israel and Lebanon / W Syria.

Towards Cyprus and S Turkey, heavy rain could become another issue as low-levels moisten betimes and due to the convection's interaction with the orography.

Beyond 06Z, the severe risk shift gradually E.