Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 14 Apr 2026 06:00 to Wed 15 Apr 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 Apr 2026 11:52
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for Sicily mainly for some hail and locally heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued for parts of N-CNTRL Italy mainly for heavy rain and some hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A cut-off approaches Sicily from the W/SW during the day. This feature is accompanied by seasonable moist air and moderate mid-level lapse rates/MUCAPE, which meet 20 m/s DLS over Sicily. Forecast soundings show deep ELs, temporarily broadening mid-level CAPE, modest sub-zero degree Celsius CAPE and modest speed in the (upper) inflow layer into evolving uprdrafts. Rather straight hodographs support splitting cells and rapid clustering, which limits time for discrete cells. However, initiating cells could produce isolated large hail and gusty winds. Betimes, clustering storms produce isolated heavy rain.

The rain risk could increase during the night over NW Sicily, as steering flow collapses next to the vortex' center and with progged storm motions near zero. This risk however depends on the final track of the mid/upper vortex, which remains uncertain for now.

Clustering convection affects Naples and surrounding areas during the night. Despite weaker shear, internal dynamics of an ongoing cluster may bring strong gusts, some hail and isolated heavy rain to this area. The overall setup (especilly with weak shear) precludes a level 1 upgrade.

Further N, over Toscana/Umbria/Marche area, scattered thunderstorms during the day could bring large amounts of small hail, a few gusts and heavy rain. Already slow moving storms could stall for some time along the orography with locally high rainfall amounts in the 50-80 l/qm/6h possible (highlighted by locally enhanced 1-2 km AGL inflow from the E/SE).

Elsewhere, either weak shear or limited instability preclude anything severe.