Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 11 Feb 2026 13:00 to Thu 12 Feb 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 11 Feb 2026 13:15
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for parts of W/SW France mainly for severe to damaging gusts and a tornado risk with a strong event not ruled out.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 for similar hazards with lowered probabilities.

Numerous level 1 areas were added for parts of the CNTRL Mediterranean mainly for isolated severe gusts and a tornado or two.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

**Short Update for the level 2**

No substantial shift of expectations regarding a solid overnight severe risk within the level 2 area. Confidence in CI ahead of another low-amplitude wave is high as dried mid-levels overspread a moist marine airmass with plenty of MUCAPE build-up even with the more reluctant ICON. As a 40 m/s jet at 1.5 km AGL overspreads the level 2 area from W to E, kinematics improve substantially with 50 m/s DLS and 30 m/s 0-3 km shear forecast. LAMs show healthy 0-3 km CAPE for this time of year and there are signals in the composite indices for temporal/spatial very conducive conditions for organized severe.

This activity should feature a bimodale severe threat (despite some spotty hail with somewhat steepened lapse rates and lowered WBZ values). The first risk will be damaging gusts - not a surprise with this kinematic background. Swaths of extreme gusts are certainly possible with long-lived convection.

The other concern is a tornado risk with a damaging/long-tracked event not ruled out. Forecast hodographs offer very intense SR inflow into any mesocyclone with inflow peaks in excess of 30 m/s. SRH at all levels is impressive despite the overall more unidirectional shear (but slight backing ahead of the approaching wave should improve helicity with the level 2). Concerns exist that this amount of shear could be destructive to structuring updrafts, but NWP guidances insists on at least a few long-tracked cells.

The main risk starts in the 19-21Z time-frame and lasts into the 3-4Z time-frame before the maturing cold-jet approaches from the W with more stable mid/upper-level conditions spreading E. Then damaging cold jet gusts should dominante that event.

Ongoing (and mentioned) issues with this event preclude higher probabilities and we keep this in a solid level 2.

See the SWODY2 below for more informations to the European severe risk.

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And yet another low-amplitude wave races towards France with substantial negative height anomalies reflecting the very dynamic background of this wave. The mix of more substantial mid-level drying from the back/west atop a moist low-tropospheric layer creates a broad area with modest CAPE build-up admits 60 kt 0-3 km shear. The severe risk increases along the backside of the eastward shifting and closing warm sector / occlusion (late afternoon) and lasts all night long. Severe gusts are a serious risk and damaging/hurricane force gusts area especially possible beyond 00Z over far SW France, as H85 winds exceed 40 m/s. A tornado risk is present and although the final hight field geometry dictates the SRH/LLCAPE overlap, all models show a temporal/spatial risk area for augmented tornado probabilities. A strong event cannot be ruled out.

A broad level 1 was once again added but this time a level 2 was issued for SW into W-CNTRL France where the cumulative severe risk will be the highest (especially for gusts).

For parts of the Mediterranean, a few level 1 areas were added, where the CAPE/shear space supports a few organized events with isolated hail, gusts and a tornado or two.