Extended Forecast
Valid: Wed 11 Feb 2026 06:00 to Thu 12 Feb 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Feb 2026 21:47
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for parts of W/SW France mainly for severe to damaging gusts and a tornado risk with a strong event not ruled out.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 for similar hazards with lowered probabilities.

Numerous level 1 areas were added for parts of the CNTRL Mediterranean mainly for isolated severe gusts and a tornado or two.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

And yet another low-amplitude wave races towards France with substantial negative height anomalies reflecting the very dynamic background of this wave. The mix of more substantial mid-level drying from the back/west atop a moist low-tropospheric layer creates a broad area with modest CAPE build-up admits 60 kt 0-3 km shear. The severe risk increases along the backside of the eastward shifting and closing warm sector / occlusion (late afternoon) and lasts all night long. Severe gusts are a serious risk and damaging/hurricane force gusts area especially possible beyond 00Z over far SW France, as H85 winds exceed 40 m/s. A tornado risk is present and although the final hight field geometry dictates the SRH/LLCAPE overlap, all models show a temporal/spatial risk area for augmented tornado probabilities. A strong event cannot be ruled out.

A broad level 1 was once again added but this time a level 2 was issued for SW into W-CNTRL France where the cumulative severe risk will be the highest (especially for gusts).

For parts of the Mediterranean, a few level 1 areas were added, where the CAPE/shear space supports a few organized events with isolated hail, gusts and a tornado or two.