Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 11 Feb 2026 19:00 to Wed 11 Feb 2026 21:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 11 Feb 2026 19:20
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion (MD) was issued to update the imminent severe risk.

Latest modified IR cloud top loops show an area with enhanced convection now crossing the CNTRL into the E Bay of Biscay. Dry slotted and rather quiescent conditions should turn stormy within the following hours as convection moves in. Rapid onset of damaging gusts beneath eastward racing convection is forecast. A cluster of thunderstorms should cross the MD E/SE and at least a few more robust updrafts are still anticipated (e.g. by merging) despite extreme background shear. No change to the mentioned tornado/gust risk in the SWODY1.