Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 19 Nov 2025 06:00 to Thu 20 Nov 2025 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 18 Nov 2025 18:06
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued across parts of W Greece/far S Albania mainly for excessive rain and a coastal tornado risk.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 for an heavy rain threat. Isolated hail is not ruled out.

A level 1 was issued for coastal areas of Belgium and NE France mainly for severe gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An extensive Rossby wave covers most of Europe. Unsettled conditions prevail in its vicinity.

The main severe risk exists along a zonally aligned and N/S oscillating surface front, which turns a warm/moist airmass towards W Greece. MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg overlaps with 50 kt DLS so expect repeatedly evolving thunderstorms along that boundary, which either move onshore or evolve next to the coast (in a V-shaped fashion). Favorable BL shear and adequate 0-3 km buoyancy support a coastal tornado risk as well. The main hazard however will be an excessive rain risk beneath slow moving clusters with peak amounts in excess of 200 l/qm/24h possible. An isolated hail risk exists as well with EML steepened mid-level lapse rates.

Otherwise numerous lightning areas were issued but CAA convection remains sub-severe for most of the time. An isolated waterspout risk for the W/CNTRL Mediterranean activity exists.

A confined level 1 was added for parts of W-Belgium to NE France. An onshore moving depression is modified by temporal offshore diabatic support. Some CAMs show a shallow warm-up of the core with rather impressive BL response. Gusts could approach Bft 10-11 offshore and along the coasts for some time, which overlaps with a somewhat enhanced thunderstorm threat. Strongest storms will bring some small hail as well.