Extended Forecast
Valid: Sun 12 Oct 2025 06:00 to Mon 13 Oct 2025 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 10 Oct 2025 11:33
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for parts of NE Spain and the offshore areas mainly for excessive rain.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 for a similar hazard but with lowered probabilities.

A level 1 was issued for the far E Mediterranean mainly for isolated gusts, heavy rain and a tornado or two.

SYNOPSIS

There is not much change compared to the previous day. A blocking high pressure area over NW Europe faces an extensive trough over E Europe. An eastward circling lower amplitude wave crosses Turkey E and interacts with a marine/unstable airmass over the far E Mediterranean.

In the meantime, the zonally aligned upper trough over SW Europe breaks apart into numerous smaller vortices, which are hard to forecast that far out regarding intensity and placement. In addition, convective modification of the PV field by DMC activity from the previous day is not ruled out.

DISCUSSION

... NE Spain and offshore areas ...

No serious change for the CAPE/shear space compared to the SWODY 1. The only change will be less support from above with a dissolving mid/uper vortex breaking apart into numerous smaller vortices and a gradual increase in thickness from the S ahead of another N-Atlantic impulse.

We therefore expect onging and gradually northward/northwestward shifting clustering convection with a good chance for temporal back-building. NWP guidance becomes rather imprecise regarding potential QPF maxima as a lot depends on the DMC activity from the previous day/night. In general there will be a lingering risk for excessive rainfall amounts on a regional scale during the daytime hours, before the risk gradually subsides from the S. 12h rainfall amounts in the 100-200 l/qm range on a regional scale are possible. Flash flooding is possible and a significant event cannot be ruled out. Coastal convection also poses an isolated tornado risk.

... Far E Mediterranean Sea ...

A passing low-amplitude wave with influx of humid/unstable air sparks numerous thunderstorms from 06Z onwards with a decrease in coverage from the W during the afternoon hours. A few organized/onshore moving cells pose an isolated gust/tornado and heavy rain threat.