Extended Forecast
Valid: Fri 10 Oct 2025 06:00 to Sat 11 Oct 2025 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 08 Oct 2025 07:25
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for SE Spain mainly for excessive rain.
A level 1 surrounds the level 2 for a similar hazard with lowered probabilities. An isolated tornado risk also exists.
A level 1 was issued for E Sardegna mainly for heavy rain and an isolated tornado risk.
SYNOPSIS
A blocking anticyclone over W/NW Europe causes a downstream response in form of an highly amplified trough, which extends from Scandinavia all the way to the far E Mediterranean. Advection of a cool airmass with modest humidity keeps the thunderstorm risk confined to regional scales.
Of main interest is a weak cut-off (zonally aligned upper trough), which affects the Iberian Peninsula and interacts with an unstable marine airmass. This area will see the highest severe risk.
DISCUSSION
... SE Spain and offshore areas ...
The main difference compared to the previous level 1 day will be a more focused and persistent onshore flow within an otherwise weak shear and moderate CAPE setup. Onshore drifting, clustering and temporarily back-building convection poses an heavy to isolated excessive rain risk. If we can get a back-building cluster next to the coast going for a few hours we could see rainfall amounts in excess of 100 l/qm in just a few hours and flash flooding is possible. However this risk needs mesoscale support either by orographically forced onshore flow or more focused convergence along outflow boundaries/other mesoscale convergence zones. Placement of those potential risk areas is not yet possible but we highlighted the general area with enhanced risk for excessive rain with a rather broad level 2, which is also in line with EPS and deterministic peaks of QPF. Coastal convection poses an isolated waterspout risk.
Beyond 06Z the risk of excessive rain becomes more focused mainly for the province of Valenica.
... E/SE of Sardegna ...
Slow moving and clustering thunderstorms bring an offshore heavy rain risk, which could spread near E Sardegna during the day. An isolated waterspout risk exists.
... Other general lightning areas ...
Scattered thunderstorms occur over far SE Europe but no organized severe risk is anticipated. Same for coastal convection along the coasts of W-Norway.
