Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Fri 10 Oct 2025 15:00 to Fri 10 Oct 2025 18:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 10 Oct 2025 14:33
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion was issued to highlight an increasing severe risk within parts of the level 2 area. Please be aware that the severe risk does not match the MD's validity. We forecast an augmented nocturnal flash flood risk.

Within the northern MD area, confidence increases in excessive rain during the overnight hours. A combination of more focused/persistent confluence into the Province of Alicante with enhanced 0-3 km shear (driven by the orography) increase the risk of a nocturnal heavy to excessive rain event. Sub-6 hourly rainfall amounts in the 50 to 150 l/qm range on a regional scale and 12h amounts in the 100-250 l/qm range are forecast. Flash flooding is likely and a significant event or two are not ruled out. Not sure about higher rainfall peaks on a local scale within this weakly dynamic setup but we cannot rule out this chance in case we see a training coastal cluster. An isolated coastal tornado event is also forecast.

The MD was expanded S to account for slow moving convection with heavy to isolated excessive rain. In general the rainfall peaks should stay lower with less persistent onshore and a more coast parallel flow regime.