Extended Forecast
Valid: Thu 09 Oct 2025 06:00 to Fri 10 Oct 2025 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 07 Oct 2025 16:07
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for SE Spain and offshore areas mainly for heavy rain and an isolated waterspout event along the coasts.

A level 1 was issued over the Gulf of Alexandretta for an isolatd gust, heavy rain and tornado risk.

SYNOPSIS

The long-lived upper trough over SE Europe lifts NE towards the Black Sea in response to an approaching and digging trough over Scandinavia. In the meantime a SW-NE aligned upper trough evolves over SW Europe and results in an increasing thunderstorm risk over parts of SW Europe. Initial modest CAPE increases during the following days, which increases the excessive rain risk over E Spain.

DISCUSSION

... SE Spain and the far W Mediterranean ...

Advection of a marine airmass from the E beneath the structuring upper trough offers a broad area with 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE offshore and lowered onshore values over SE Spain. DLS remains weak to moderate with 5-10 m/s, so rather disorganized thunderstorm activity is anticipated. Repeated CI along mesoscale convergence zones near the coast cause scattered thunderstorm coverage throughout the day and we could see a few rainfall peaks in the 50-100 l/qm/24h range but mainly offshore and very localized. However this onshore moving convection can also pose an heavy rain risk and parts of SE Spain were upgraded to a level 1. A few waterspouts are possible, too.

A weak upper jet maximum crosses N Algeria/Tunisia E during the day and a weak/diffuse LL vortex is forecast beneath its left exit just S of Sardegna. This would induce a broad confluent wind field S/E of Sardegna with an uptick of convection during the night. Local heavy rain and an isolated waterspout is possible but not yet enough for a level 1.

... SE Europe ...

The filling and NE ward lifting upper trough induces a broad area with active thunderstorm coverage. Strong SW-erlies along its S fringe affect the Gulf of Alexandretta with 20 m/s DLS and adequate CAPE for a few organized thunderstorms with gusts, hail and heavy rain. A confined level 1 was added and this risk ends until the evening.
Over the E Black Sea, strong shear overlaps with modest SBCAPE, but adiabatic warming of descending air downshear of N Turkey adds a low-tropospheric cap, so not much organized convection is forecast. Heavy rain however is possible along the coastal areas of the E Black Sea. This is also true for the Kure Escarpment just N of N-Turkey, where persistent onshore flow offers some healthy rainfall amounts. Latest QPF peaks won't support a level 1 for those areas but these areas will be monitored for potential upgrades.