Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 20 Jul 2025 12:00 to Sun 20 Jul 2025 14:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 20 Jul 2025 12:02
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A Mesoscale Discussion was issued for an imminent/ongoing severe risk over parts of E-CNTRL France.

CI was noted along the N fringes of the Massif Central and a long-lived supercell now races E/NE just NE of Vichy towards Macon/Chalon-sur-Saone. The environment supports more longer-tracked supercells with large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain during the afternoon hours, as the activity spreads E/NE (also into the other MD area). Betimes, splitting cells favor clustering convection with more focused swaths of strong to severe gusts/heavy rain and hail. The rain risk should turn more dominant over CNTRL into SE Switzerland during the evening into the overnight hours, as repeatedly evolving convection gets fed by a very moist and unstable airmass from NW Italy. Swaths of 40-80 l/qm/12h are possible with even higher amounts into SE Switzerland. A few flash flood events are possible.