Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 25 Jun 2025 19:00 to Wed 25 Jun 2025 20:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 25 Jun 2025 19:20
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A Mesoscale Discussion was issued to highlight an imminent severe to extremely severe risk in the MD area.

Latest radar data reveals at least two dominant right moving supercells, which produce severe gusts and large to very large hail. These storms ride along the warm side of the baroclinic sea breeze front in an environment with abundant shear and roughly 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. This CAPE shear space exists for the next 1-2 hours before CIN increases. Merging of both cells into a severe bow is not ruled out but this is not reflected in latest NWP data. In addition, destructive interaction with a cluster near Paris is possible. Nevertheless an ongoing severe to extreme gust/hail risk exists in the near term especially for Rouen down to Val-de-Reuil. These are high impact thunderstorms!