Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2025 09:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2025 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2025 09:10
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 3 was issued across parts of Russia for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, damaging wind gusts and large to very large hail.

A level 2 was issued for the same threats but with lower probability.

A level 1 was issued across northwest Russia mainly for isolated severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued from Ukraine to Moldova and Romania mainly for large hail, isolated severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for Georgia mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for eastern Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level x was issued across (areas) for (hail|tornadoes|wind gusts|extreme rainfall). (repeat for each level area)

DISCUSSION

... Russia ...

A deepening frontal wave is crossing the area with some embedded elevated thunderstorms currently ongoing north of the lifting warm front. Increasing coverage of storms is forecast in the upcoming hours both across the warm and cold fronts. Along the warm front, models forecast an overlap of considerable SBCAPE with strongly curved hodographs yielding 0-500 m SRH well above 100 m2/s2 and 0-1 km bulk shear of around 15 m/s. Combined with low LCLs and 0-6 km bulk shear of around 20 m/s, environment seems supportive of right-moving supercells capable of strong tornadoes and large to very large hail.

A linear segment may develop as well, particularly further south towards the well-mixed boundary layer and propagate rapidly eastwards bringing swaths of damaging wind gusts.

Combined risks of very large hail, strong tornadoes and of destructive wind gusts warrant a Lvl 3. Any storm developing within the Lvl 2 in the area needs to be given attention and will be capable of severe to extremely severe weather.

... Ukraine, Moldova, Romania ...

Weaker shear is forecast further southwest along the cold front. Especially across Romania, Carpathians will guarantee initiation in moderately to strongly unstable environment with MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg. Expect locally severe storms capable of large hail, downbursts and heavy rainfall.

... Georgia ...

Isolated large hail events can be expected in moderately strong shear with storms that move over the lowlands from Caucasus to the area with higher CAPE.

... E Spain ...

While convective coverage is uncertain, moderately sheared environment combined with MLCAPE of up to 1500 J/kg and high LCLs results in an elevated risks of large hail and severe wind gusts with any developing storm.
Area2...