Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 04 Jun 2025 12:00 to Wed 04 Jun 2025 14:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 04 Jun 2025 11:51
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A Mesoscale Discussion was issued to update the evolving severe risk. Please keep in mind that the MD's validity does not match the time for organized DMC activity.

Latest AMDAR data from far E France into Switzerland (modified with latest surface data) reveals steadily increasing CAPE behind departing morning convection in response to temporal diabatic heating with peak values approaching 1 kJ/kg especially towards N/NE Switzerland. DLS remains in the 25 m/s range and temporarily more backed winds in the 1.5-3 km AGL layer switch back to more veered profiles from the SW.

Latest radar data show a few intense cells, which now enter far SW Switzerland with already enhanced shear gradients along the structuring updrafts. This activity should track NE with favorable conditions ahead for organized thunderstorms including a few long-tracked supercells. We still expect all kind of hazards (including a few significant hail and gust events) including a tornado event or two. The severe risk should be maximized into N/NE Switzerland, where best BL moisture resides.