Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 19 May 2025 15:00 to Mon 19 May 2025 16:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 19 May 2025 15:44
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion was issued to highlight an ongoing severe risk.

Merging thunderstorms created a dominant and well organized thunderstorm with a broad updraft. 60 dBz values up to 8 or 9km AGL point to large hail with this potential supercell as it shifts SE. In addition strong to isolated severe gusts are forecast.
Latest data has this cell in the fetch of highest CAPE (up to 800 J/kg MUCAPE) and within a belt of 20 m/s DLS. Hence expect this thunderstorm to shift SE during the following 1-2 hours before starting a gradual weakening trend as it outruns best CAPE. We would not be suprised to see a temporal bowing trend of this cell with an augmented wind gust threat, too.