Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 19 May 2025 12:00 to Mon 19 May 2025 14:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 19 May 2025 12:42
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion was issued to highlight a near term severe risk next to Toulouse.

Latest radar data confirms a severe supercell SW of Toulouse with 60 dBz up to 8 km AGL betimes. Rotation becomes more organized with damaging RFD gusts possible as this cell enters an increasingly unstable airmass with MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Shear is more than sufficient for organized updrafts and hodographs show enough 0-3 km SRH for and ongoing risk for severe. Large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain will be the main hazard.
A cap at 750 hPa and a better mixed BL airmass could mitigate the tornado risk in the nearterm but this cell should be monitored as it moves NE into somehwat better BL moisture.