Extended Forecast
Valid: Wed 30 Apr 2025 06:00 to Thu 01 May 2025 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 28 Apr 2025 20:32
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

There is no major change compared to the severe weather discussion of day 1 with an ongoing static pattern over Europe.
A strong anticyclone over CNTRL Europe gets framed by two intense cut-offs. The one W of Portugal features dropping MSLP, which assists in a persistent E-erly flow atop the far W Mediterranean, resulting in a favorable fetch of moist marine air, which advects towards S/SW Spain and Portugal. Despite gradually improving BL moisture, the overall stratification remains rather stable during the forecast period with only some elevated CAPE forecast. Spotty heavy rain and small hail accompanies stronger storms.

Elsewhere, pulsating convection is forecast over numerous regions but only isolated heavy rain/small hail and gusty winds occur with slow moving convection.

A belt of stronger upper-level winds occurs beneath a northward bending subtropical jet over the far E Mediterranean. Rapid low-tropospheric warming and a strengthening cap should limit any severe risk. This area needs to be monitored for an upgrade however in case of better elevated CAPE buid-up in response to steepening mid-level lapse rates. In addition, persistent upslope flow along the Taurus Mountains with embedded thunderstorms could cause some flooding issues. Southward facing parts of the orography and the surroundings of the Gulf of Alexandretta could see an upgrade in subsequent outlooks.