Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 23 Jan 2025 10:00 to Thu 23 Jan 2025 13:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 23 Jan 2025 10:06
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion was issued to update the increasing severe risk over far S UK. The validity of this MD does not match the actual duration of the severe risk.

Latest synop data reveals LL mass response ahead of the approaching trough/cold front as southerly winds push a marine airmass ashore. Sfc dewpoints now rise to and over 5 C from W to E, which is in line with the latest NWP data. There exists some discrepancy regarding the depth of the BL moisture and therefore how effective postfrontal mixing will be (which might suppress more active convection beneath the 700 hPa thermal trough). A few models still show onshore LLCAPE up tp 200 J/kg, whereas others pushed this favorable thermodynamic enironment more towards the coast. Nevertheless we still expect an active cold front shifting E during the following hours including a risk of severe wind gusts and augmented tornado probabilities. The risk ends from W to E and exits SE UK during the late afternoon hours.