Extended Forecast
Valid: Fri 19 Jul 2024 06:00 to Sat 20 Jul 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 17 Jul 2024 16:24
Forecaster: TUSCHY

Numerous level 1 areas were issued across parts of France, Austria/N-Italy and the Dinaric Alps mainly for hail, heavy rain and gusts.

SYNOPSIS

No substantial change to the SWODY 1 with essential the same drivers like a strong subtropical ridge over S-CNTRL Europe, a weakening upper trough over Finland/Russia and over Turkey. The cold front drifts into Russia with its occluding part running into Finland.

DISCUSSION

... W Russia ...

Clustering convection along the decaying cold front evolves in 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 10-15 m/s DLS so a few better organized storms with hail and strong gusts are possible. A confined level 1 may be added later.

... Finland ...

Slow moving convection peripheral of the vortex produces another round of heavy precipitation. The airmass however is worked over and latest NWP guidances does not indicate any hot spots for a rainfall driven upgrade (maybe the region between the White Sea and Lake Ladoga with best low/mid-level frontogenesis and modest CAPE).

... S France ...

A loaded-gun pattern is forecast as heights decrease atop a moist BL airmass, offering 1000-2000 J/kg weakly capped MUCAPE. EZ is a bit more bullish with 0-3 km shear but ICON/GFS and EZ all indicate 15 m/s DLS and strong veering with height, supportive for a few organized storms, if CI occurs. In EPS data, the Massif Central is highlighted with low/moderate probabilities next to the Pyrenees. Right now we stick with the EPS data and add a small level 1 to those places for hail and a few severe gusts. Despite some temporal clustering, this activity should weaken as it moves into the stronger capped lowland. Modifications of this level area may be needed in any further update.

... Austria/N-Italy ...

A level 1 was added for scattered clustering convection in a 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 10 m/s DLS setup. Heavy rain and isolated hail next to strong gusts could become an issue. This activity weakens beyond sunset.

...Dinaric Alps...

Another level 1 was added for mountain convection. A few severe storms are forecast in up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and weak shear. Heavy rain and a few hail events are forecast.