Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 15 Jul 2024 12:00 to Mon 15 Jul 2024 15:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 15 Jul 2024 12:08
Forecaster: TUSCHY

The MD area covers the risk of more widespread strong to severe gusts. The validity of the MD does not match the expected time for the severe risk.

The previously mentioned more discrete activity (see other MDs) grows into a temporarily more organized line of storms - an MCS. 0-3 km shear vectors in the 15 to locally 20 m/s range point into growing cold pools, which take profit of a better/deeper mixed airmass ahead of the structuring pre-frontal convective line. The EPS data indicates a chance for a few swaths with severe gusts, especially if embedded bowing segments evolve. One concern is the capturing process of any more discrete cell ahead of the line, which could induce a regionally enhanced chance for bowing segments/bookend vortices. The risk gradually weakens into Germany as CAPE diminishes and CIN increases incuding a rather deep/mixed BL airmass.

One concern however evolves from NE Switzerland into far S Germany during the evening into the overnight hours. A strong pressure wave is forecast to race E in this area which could increase LL convergence and lowering the impact of rather healthy CIN signals. MUCAPE in the 1000 J/kg range is enough for an onging line of storms with bowing segments and strong to severe gusts can occur well beyond midnight (especially at more elevated stations, dependant on the RIJ height).