Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 15 Jul 2024 12:00 to Mon 15 Jul 2024 15:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 15 Jul 2024 11:52
Forecaster: TUSCHY

The southern MD area (CNTRL into E-France) covers the risk of a few discrete supercells during the following hours. The validity of the MD does not match the expected severe risk.

Latest WV/HVIS loops show a substantial postfrontal dark stripe/drying along the eastbound moving cold front. CI is imminent and regionally already underway with 15-20 m/s DLS overlapping roughly 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Numerous multicells and a few supercells with large hail and severe gusts are forecast as the activity spreads E. Rapid upscale growth is expcted into a cold pool driven line of storms with numerous strong to severe gusts. The MD area for more discrete storm activity was expanded far E/NE to cover a few prefrontal discrete storms, which later merge with the growing MCS. Especially during the merging process of discrete cells with the line, an isolated tornado event seems possible. Otherwise rapidly undercutting downdrafts should limit that risk. This convective line probably evolves into an eastbound racing prefrontal convective line, well ahead of the cold front itself.

The northern MD from N France into W-Belgium indicates a chance for a few rotating storms during the evening into the overnight hours. The maturing MCS to the S should graze this area and mid-level cooling ahead of the main cold front should induce a second focus for enhanced DMC activity on a more isolated scale. This activity could bring an isolated tornado threat with low LCLs and some LL helical inflow into growing storms. Strongest storms also bring some hail, strong gusts and heavy rain.