Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 09 Jul 2024 08:00 to Tue 09 Jul 2024 10:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 09 Jul 2024 08:13
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This Mesoscale Discussion was issued to update the current thunderstorm activity over NW into N-CNTRL France.

Latest WV loop places an E-ward travelling low-amplitude wave currently over the E-Bay of Biscay. Downstream WAA regime caused an increase in convection along a sloped frontal zone with a few stronger tail-end cells now approaching the area of Paris. Latest radar data indicates some weakening, which is in line with the NWP expectations.

Latest WRF soundings next to the convection show an elevated nature of the convection atop an inversion, centered at around 750 hPa. Modest effective shear with MUCAPE up to 600 J/kg may support a few hail and heavy rain reports as this convection continues E/ENE.

Beyond noon / around and NE of Paris, environmental conditions improve for surface based CI. This scenario will be covered by a separate MD later-on.