Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 02 Jul 2024 06:00 to Wed 03 Jul 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 01 Jul 2024 21:39
Forecaster: PUCIK/ENGERT
A level 2 was issued across SE Italy, Montenegro, Albania, S Serbia, North Macedonia, W Bulgaria and SW Romania mainly for severe to extremely severe wind gusts, large to very large hail and heavy rainfall. The highest likelihood of extremely severe wind gusts is between S Serbia, SW Romania and NW Bulgaria.
A level 2 was issued across NE Belarus and NW Russia mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued across N Russia mainly for severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued across N Romania, Ukraine and S Belarus mainly for heavy rainfall, large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued across N Italy mainly for heavy rainfall and large hail.
DISCUSSION
... Belarus to Russia ...
A frontal wave is forecast to develop across the region. However, there's a large uncertainty in its timing and position. Models do agree on the development of an MCS in the strong WAA advection along the warm front. Here, moderate MLCAPE values are simulated with values around 1000 J/kg. Strong vertical wind shear is forecast as well, with 0-3 km bulk shear up to 20 m/s. Curved hodographs are simulated especially to the N of the warm front in the zone where mostly elevated storms are forecast. Strongest low-level shear is simulated by ICON-EU that produces the most pronounced deepening of the surface low along the wave. Expect mostly severe wind gusts with the MCS with a chance of tornadoes in case that strongly curved hodographs materialize in the presence of non-zero SBCAPE along the warm front. There is a possibility that the MCS could result in a long tracked windstorms. Same as for the frontal wave, its timing and exact position is uncertain. Broad Lvl 2 has been issued for most likely location of such development.
... Italy to SE Europe ...
A deep trough will approach the area from the Mediterranean. Surface low deepening along the cold front is expected with eventual surge in the front towards SE in the afternoon to evening hours, especially over Serbia, S Romania and N Bulgaria. Ahead of the trough, strong vertical wind shear is forecast, with 0-6 km bulk shear exceeding 20 m/s. Strong 0-3 km shear is forecast as well, reaching up to 20 m/s. A mix of linear segments and supercells is forecast with threats of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. The most likely corridor of severe weather threat is between SE Serbia, SW Romania and NW Bulgaria, where models consistently show the most pronounced CAPE-shear overlap. Here, supercell development with large to very large hail may be quickly followed by an upscale growth as the cold front surges SE with numerous linear segments capable of severe to perhaps even extremely severe wind gusts. Heavy rainfall threat will increase towards N and NE, especially over NW and N Romania, where stalling frontal boundary with increasing WAA advection regime will result in numerous rounds of storms. Here, the mean wind will be close to the hodograph origin in the evening, exacerbating the heavy rainfall potential.
... Ukraine to S Belarus ...
Scattered to widespread storms will form along the frontal boundary in moderate MLCAPE (limited by a lack of steep lapse rates) and 0-6 km bulk shear between 10 and 15 m/s. Stronger cells may be capable of large hail, severe wind gusts and/or heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall and wind gust threats will increase with increasing storm coverage.
... NE Italy ...
Slow moving thunderstorms will develop over the area in the evening to night hours. Expect heavy rainfall with moist profiles and low LCLs. Large hail is not ruled out either, especially in the early part of the period as the 0-6 km bulk shear reaches around 15 m/s and some storms may become transient supercells.
