Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 18 Jun 2024 14:00 to Tue 18 Jun 2024 17:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 18 Jun 2024 13:32
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This MD was issued to update an augmented severe to damaging gust risk over far E Germany from now on onwards.

A long-lived MCV currently affects parts of CNTRL Germany. Numerous intense thunderstorms erupted along its SE flank with already a Bft 11 gust reported. These storms now enter an airmass which features rather impressive T-Td spreads of 10-15 K and BL is mixed all the way up to 800 hPa. 12Z MUCAPE increases from Berlin (400 J/kg) to Meiningen (1100 J/kg) and hence with a structuring cold pool, conditions seem supportive for a growing MCS event. Severe to damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, although the hail risk is present especially towards Saxony (e.g. more discrete cells peripheral of this line). This line gradually weakens as it enters Poland during the evening hours as BL starts to stabilize althoug a lot depends on how fast the cold pool degenerates.