Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 13 Jun 2024 09:00 to Fri 14 Jun 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 13 Jun 2024 08:49
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 3 was issued across south-eastern Romania, northern Bukgaria, and south-eastern Serbia for very large hail and extremely severe wind gusts.

A level 2 was issued across southern and eastern Romania, Bulgaria, and north-western Turkey for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 2 was issued across Serbia and central Bosnia and Herzegovina for tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for south-eastern Europe for large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive rain, and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for southern Italy for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for northern Italy for large hail and excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued across Russia for large hail and excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

Refer to extended outlook.

DISCUSSION

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, southern Romania and northern Bulgaria

At the northern flank of the frontal boundary, low stratus clouds in the west and clear conditions in the east are present in response to weak forcing. In the next hours, warm air advection will increase from the west ahead of a progressing trough. First storms have developed across Croatia that will spread east. Due to very favorable CAPE shear overlap, with 30 m/s DLS, severe potential will rapidly increase over eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina. Supercells are expected capable of large and very large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

This activity is expected to grow upscale in the afternoon and evening due to increasing WAA and frontal lift. With a well-mixed boundary layer and strong 0-3 km shear, severe bow echoes are forecast, capable of destructive winds. A swath of high winds is forecast to reach the Black Sea aross northern Bulgaria.

Ahead of this system, isolated storms are forecast to develop across Romania and Bulgaria, mainly due to orographic lift. Long-track supercells are possible in the highly-sheared environment, with wind driven very large to giant hail possible. With increasing LCL heights to the east, tornado potential is low, however, a strong tornado is not ruled out with intense supercells.

Italy

Elevated storms are moving across southern Italy with a low potential of severe wind gusts. Later in the day, some isolated storms are forecast due to orographic lift. These storms will fight strong shear and rather dry levels. Storms that manage to survive can develop mesocyclones capable of large hail.

In the northern parts, more widespread surface-based storms are forecast. Given weaker shear, severe potential of these storms is limited. However, a few marginally severe hail events and locally excessive rain are forecast.