Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 13 Jun 2024 16:00 to Thu 13 Jun 2024 18:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 13 Jun 2024 16:07
Forecaster: GATZEN

In a strongly-sheared environment, high instability has developed across northern Bulgaria. A very intense long-track supercell is moving east across the Balkan mountains and will soon affect densly populated areas. Latest satellite and lightning data show no signs of weakening and giant hail (10+ cm) is forecast. With strong downbursts, wind-driven hail may cause destruction and life-threatening conditions within the path of this cell.

Across southern Romania, upscale growth of a line of supercells entering the country from the west is expected. With deep boundary-layer mixing and 15 m/s 0-3 km shear vectors towards the east, a high-end wind event (derecho) is expected that moves rapidly towards the Black Sea. Severe and extremely (32+ m/s) severe wind gusts are forecast. Additionally, wind-driven hail is forecast especially in the eastern parts of the MD area where embedded supercells are present.