Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 10 Jun 2024 14:00 to Mon 10 Jun 2024 18:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 10 Jun 2024 14:12
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Extremely severe storms becoming increasingly likely over the area ***

Satellite data show convective initiation in progress over the area with a powerful storm that has just developed over W Romania. Surface observations show a convergence zone over Serbia with temperature readings of 30 to 35 deg C and dewpoint readings of 15 to 17 deg C over the area. Beograd 12 UTC sounding confirms the presence of high CAPE (2095 J/kg MLCAPE), high LCL (2300 m) and strongly sheared environment with curved hodograph and 25+ m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear.

Environment is conducive for destructive hail with diameter well above 5 cm and damaging wind gusts that may exceed locally 32 m/s. Tornado threat will be reduced by the high LCLs, but can't be ruled out completely, especially in the northern part of the MD. While the convective initiation is questionable, especially in the southern part of the MD, any storm that develops will have high chance of (extremely) severe weather.