Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 09 Jun 2024 16:00 to Sun 09 Jun 2024 19:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 09 Jun 2024 15:37
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Isolated to widely scaterred convective initiation expected towards 18 UTC ***

A band of storms has moved from France to Piemonte, associated with the strong synoptic scale lift of an approaching short-wave trough. Based on the remote sensing data, these storms will be capable of large hail and heavy rainfall. Satellite observations show that the area of lift will overspread the Lvl 3 within the next few hours. Surface observations across the region show high dewpoints, mostly around 20 deg C with easterly surface wind component. In the past few hours, several elevated storms passed through the area with no rooting into surface-based convection.

Several high resolution models still hint at the initiation of surface-based storms at western edge of the Lvl 3 around 18 UTC. At this time, MLCAPE between 2 and 3 kJ/kg, combined with 0-6 km bulk shear around 20 m/s should still be available with a chance for storms to become intense supercells with destructive hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

Should the surface-based initiation not occur before 19 UTC, the severe weather will be less than originally forecast given the continuing reduction in the deep-layer shear as the core of the trough arrives. Nevertheless, even after this time, storms will be capable of at least isolated large hail and heavy rainfall.