Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 09 Jun 2024 15:00 to Sun 09 Jun 2024 18:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 09 Jun 2024 14:34
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Severe weather threat to increase in the next 3 hours ***

Convective initiation has ocurred over NE Italy, SW Austria and N Slovenia. Furthermore, signs of initiation are also discernible on the satellite and radar over N and E Austria. Surface observations show dewpoints ranging from 15 to 18 deg C over the area, combined with easterly component in the low-level flow towards the mountains. Low-level moisture is increase from north to south across the area.

In general, high-resolution models simulated supercells developing either near the Danube river valley (N Austria), tracking towards NE Austria/SW Slovakia/NW Hungary or forming over the central/S Alps and affecting the Graz area/NE Slovenia/SW Hungary. Currently, both scenarios look plausible. Thus, a relatively wide area may experience severe weather over the next few hours. Expect an increase in the severe weather threat after 15 UTC as the first storms track towards favorable conditions for severe weather.