Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 20 May 2024 06:00 to Tue 21 May 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 May 2024 20:38
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 2 was issued across parts central Italy mainly for heavy rainfall, large to very large hail and to the lesser degree for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 1 was was issued across Sardegna, Corsica, the southern Alps mainly for heavy rainfall.
A level 1 was issued across Ireland, France, BENELUX, N Germany, N Poland, Baltics into extreme W Russia mainly for heavy rainfall.
A level 1 was issued across Austria, N Alps, S/E Czechia, Slovakia, S Poland, Romania, Hungary, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Albania, N Macedonia, N Greece mainly for heavy rainfall, large hail and to the lesser degree for severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued across S Turkey mainly for heavy rainfall.
A level 1 was issued across Iran mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.
DISCUSSION
Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are forecast across much of Europe during the forecast period. Much of the activity will be tied to the trough across Iberia/France and its forward flank, as well as a pool of lower geopotentials stretching from France to Poland and further into Russia. Most of Scandinavia will be devoid of any storms due to dry air in the lower troposphere. Higher storm organisation is forecast on the forward flank of the trough, were stronger mid-tropospheric flow is forecast.
... Ireland ...
Slow moving storms in moist profiles with low LCLs and high RH through low to mid-troposphere will be capable of locally heavy rainfall.
... France to BENELUX, N Germany, Poland, Baltics and Belarus ...
Very slow moving storms will develop in the environment of low LCLs and moist low to mid troposphere. Expect heavy rainfall as the main threat. The highest potential for heavy rain is forecast with a low across France, where models show pronounced areas with low-level convergence and focused storm initiation.
... SW Germany / Austria / S and E Czechia / Slovakia / W Romania/ Croatia / Bosnia / Serbia / Bulgaria / Albania / N Macedonia / N Greece
Compared to the area mentioned above, stronger vertical wind shear and steeper mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast here. With 0-6 km bulk wind shear around 15 m/s, expect a mix of multicells and supercells. Besides isolated heavy rainfall, storms will also be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts given higher values of CAPE below -10 deg C and also higher LCLs. Storm initiation will be tied to orography and local convergence zones. Currently, it is not possible to delineate more precisely zones, where the coverage of severe could yield Lvl 2. Lvl 2 was considered for parts of N Greece, Albania and N Macedonia, where models showed the strongest shear of the area, yielding the highest conditional probability of (very) large hail. However, the coverage of storms remains questionable.
...Sardegna, Corsica through Italy into Slovenia and southern Alps...
A short-wave trough is forecast to cross the area along with a frontal boundary. While the coverage of storms will increase steeply from south to north of the designated area, potential for organised convection with intense updrafts will increase towards south, where higher CAPE values and stronge vertical wind shear is forecast. Mostly rain threat is forecast across Sardegna, Corsica and over N Italy/Alps with moist profiles, low LCLs and skinny CAPE profiles. Risk of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will increase towards south, where supercells are expected in 0-6 km bulk shear around 20 m/s. Coverage of storms is questionable over S Central Italy, where forcing will be weaker and the LFC higher. Still, the areas, where the profiles look to be conducive to initiation where demarked by Lvl 2 despite relatively little modeled convective precipitation. Low-level shear is forecast to increase towards the evening hours, but so will the stability of lower troposphere, yielding a very questionable tornado risk.
... S Turkey ...
Heavy rainstorms are possible with slow moving storms, initiated by a combination of upslope flow and sea breeze boundary.
... Iran ...
Inverted-V profiles with deep, dry boundary layer and 0-3 km bulk shear around 15 m/s suggest a threat of severe wind gusts with any storm that develops over the area. Stronger updrafts may also be capable of large hail given high LCLs and majority of CAPE above -10 deg C.
