Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 08 May 2024 06:00 to Thu 09 May 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 07 May 2024 22:24
Forecaster: KUZMENKO/PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across SE Europe for heavy rainfall and large hail

DISCUSSION

MLCAPE values of up to 1700 J/kg are forecasted to develop over the area already in early afternoon. Scattered storms will initiate especially over mountains. The dominant threat in the southern half of the region will be heavy rainfall due to the low LCL's, moist thermodynamic profiles and quasi-stationary nature of the storms. Further north, towards the S Romania, where shear will get stronger, the threat of large hail will be enhanced as well.

A level 1 was also considered for parts of central and southern Italy. However, there is a large discrepancy concerning CAPE values among the models. Should the ICON-EU scenario realize, expect an isolated threat of large hail and heavy rain.