Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 14 Apr 2020 06:00 to Wed 15 Apr 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 Apr 2020 22:19
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for Portugal and Spain mainly for large hail and severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Ukraine, Moldova and Romania mainly for severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

An arctic air mass is about to invade Central Europe on Tue 14/04, as a high-pressure system in NW Europe is moving east, pushing the cold and dry air towards Central and Eastern Europe. At the surface, an elongated cold front extending from Scandinavia towards France is progressively moving SE, destabilizing warmer air masses.
Over the Iberian Peninsula, a cold drop is also destabilizing warm and moist surface air masses. More to the south, the subtropical jet stream is intensifying and will be shifted north in Central Mediterranean, bringing warm air masses from Africa, loaded with dust.
The ingredients for organized DMC can be found over Iberia and ahead of the aforementioned cold front in Eastern Europe. A few more areas will be prone to short-lived convection shown with lightning-threat areas.

DISCUSSION

.... Portugal and Spain ....

Synoptic-scale ascent under and east of the cut-off, steep mid-level lapse rates, unstable surface masses and diurnal heating guarantee DMC occurrence on Tue 14/04. In addition, mid/upper-level flow will create locally DLS up to 15 m/s, overlapping with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE leading to organized convection and increasing the large hail threat. Severe wind gusts may also be a threat during organized convection.

.... Ukraine, Moldova and Romania ....

The cold front will approach this area before noon when storms are expected to develop along the sheared line extending from Romania towards Russia. In the level-1 area DLS is perpendicular to the front motion and wind speed at 850 hPa higher than 15 m/s may translate to the surface during storms leading to severe wind gusts.