Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 01 Mar 2018 06:00 to Fri 02 Mar 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 28 Feb 2018 23:46
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the southern and central Iberian Peninsula mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Cold air masses have spread west across the Atlantic where they are included in the circulation of a south-west Euopean trough. It will move north and intensifies across the Bay of Biscay, where severe winds are forecast at the end of the period. To the south, a cold front crosses the Iberian Peninsula, pushing moist subtropical air towards the west Mediterranean. Rather weak low-level convergence below the anticyclonically sheared flank of the trough's jet limit thunderstorm coverage. However, initially still scattered storms will be present over south-west Iberia. These may be organized since deep layer shear is strong. Severe wind gusts and a tornado are not ruled out, but severe potential will gradually decrease due to weakening CAPE. Nonetheless, severe (partly non-convective) wind gusts are forecast to be possible until the evening when storms are moving across the Mediterranean.