Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 16 Feb 2017 06:00 to Fri 17 Feb 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 15 Feb 2017 22:54
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Eastern Europe is dominated by cold and dry air masses that have spread far south in association with a deep polar trough. Upstream, amplified ridge over central Europe decays as an Atlantic trough moves into Germany on Thursday. Its cold front crosses Germany until Friday morning. Lapse rates are expected to become quite steep in response to stretching below a stratospheric intrusion, however, equilibrium level will likely be too warm to allow for thunderstorms. Nevertheless, showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are not ruled out over southern Germany and eastern France on Thursday afternoon / evening into the night. The same intrusion will also affect the north Mediterranean later on, maybe supporting some isolated storms across the Gulf of Genoa on Friday morning.

In the wake of the cold front, the trough centre enters the North Sea, where lapse rates can become steep in response to some stretching at the cyclonically sheared flank of a mid-level jet. Again, lighting probability is too low to include any thunder line in the map, although some isolated storms are possible.

Western Europe is dominated by weak lapse rates and unfavourable forcing. Iberia that has better lapse rates is affected by mid-level ridging during the period. The east Mediterranean sees low-level cold air advection and also pretty dry low-level air, coupled with poor lapse rates and forcing. Northern Europe is also not expected to get any storms given limited QG forcing and poor lapse rates.