Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 10 Oct 2015 12:00 to Sat 10 Oct 2015 18:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 10 Oct 2015 12:01
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, increasing storm coverage is expected over the Ionian and southern Adriatic Seas during the coming hours.

Across the Ionian Sea, model guidance predicts as much as 3000 J/kg of CAPE to be colocated with high storm-relative helicity on the order of 500 m2/s2. In addition, low-level bulk wind shear should be on the order of 10-15 m/s.

As a result, the storms across the indicated area are expected to quickly develop into supercells and into larger convective structures. Any supercells, in particular across the southern 2/3rds of the area, will bear a risk of potentially strong tornadoes. In addition, isolated large hail and damaging straight-line winds may occur.

Where storms develop into training systems, very high rainfall amounts will occur. It is likely that a number of flash flood events will occur as a consequence.