Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 15 Mar 2015 06:00 to Mon 16 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 15 Mar 2015 02:31
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 1 was issued for Corsica and Sardinia mainly for the large hail and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Weather over the most of the European continent is influenced by strong high with 1050 hPa over Scandinavia and ridges over British Isles and Balkan Peninsula. This feature blocks advections of warm and moist air masses from the Atlantic Ocean and provide stratiform cloud cover in N, W, E and central Europe. Troughs are located over central Turkey and western Mediterranean, and in these areas convection will be likely on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

...Corsica and Sardinia...

At the right flank of the trough, the advection of warm and moist airmass with locally enhanced lapse rates will take place. Although the CAPE is expected to be marginal (~ 100-300 J/kg), the overlap of favorable QG-forcing with DLS exceeding 20 m/s, SRH ~ 200 m2/s2 and LLS ~ 10 m/s create conditions conducive for the tornadic supercells. The highest threat for severe weather phenomena is forecast in this area between 0600 - 0900 (morning) and 0000 - 0600 (night) when instability will overlap with wind shear and QG-lift. However, due to low and uncertain in spatial sense values of CAPE, and a lack of good overlap with wind shear during the daytime heating, the confidence for the occurrence of severe weather phenomena is in general not very large.