Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 22 Jul 2026 06:00 to Thu 23 Jul 2026 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 21 Jul 2026 15:37
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for parts of Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Turkey mainly for large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain. A tornado risk exists over E Bulgaria/Romania.
A level 1 surrounds the level 2 with similar hazards but lowered probabilities.
A level 1 was issued for parts of S Italy and E Spain mainly for isolated large hail, gusts and heavy rain.
SYNOPSIS
Atlantic ridging in interaction with a lingering subtropical ridge over SW Europe maintain the blocked European weather pattern. A deep trough over NE Europe remains in place and recharges with advected energy from the NW (absorbing another trough). This configuration takes the frontal zone from Norway to Italy and further E towards Turkey. A southeastward/southward surging cold front will be the focus for some thunderstorm activity, especially over SE Europe.
DISCUSSION
... Bulgaria, Romania to N Greece/NW Turkey ...
A complex synoptic pattern exists for this forecast period. The more straightforward part is the main progressive upper trough, which crosses Serbia around noon and approaches Romania until the evening hours.
Ongoing DMC activity from the previous night keeps going over the S Balkans and shifts east ahead of the synoptic wave, probably growing into a deepening positive PV anomaly (extensive MCV event). IFS-ENS responds to this scenario in offering numerous signals for a weak BL vortex, which shifts into SE Romania during the day. As lots of irrotational wind response is underway, so no surpise we still see lingering discrepancies in NWP pool but we see decent chances for an active MCV event, affecting this area of interest during the forecast period.
The cold front in IFS-ENS forecast reveals some E-W uncertainties, probably driven by the mentioned issues. However, we still expect a confined corridor with decent CAPE/shear overlap (MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg and in excess of 20 m/s DLS). Forecast hodographs are long and straight, so expect organized multicells and a few supercells with large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain. A tornado risk exists over E Bulgaria and with good CAPE3 build-up, a strong event cannot be ruled out. This tornado risk extends into far E Romania (Constanta/Tulcea).
Clustering occurs betimes with an increasing heavy rain threat. The rain risk seems to be maximized over far E Romania with lowered storm motion due to impressive WAA driven hodograph curvature and flash flooding is possible. A few extreme rain events cannot be ruled out near the coast.
The risk of organized DMC activity extends SW into NW Turkey and N Greece with large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain.
The level 1 was expanded back W towards CNTRL Romania for some severe post frontal activity. Large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain occur in 1500 J/kg MUCAPE and 15 m/s DLS (favoring a few stron multicell storms).
... CNTRL Mediterranean ...
An undisturbed NW-erly flow affetcs CNTRL/S Italy and not much signals for meanigful synoptic-scale low amplitude waves exist. SW-ward sagging cold front turns shallow betimes, so we have cap issues ahead due to a lingering impressive low-tropospheric thermal imprint and postronftal due to not much cooling above the H8/7 layer.
Ensemble and deterministic runs however show some weak signals along the orography and we cannot rule out a few storms, which could turn severe with impressive background CAPE/shear in place. A confined level 1 for large hail, severe gusts and heavy rain was added. This is a low confident event and some parts of this level area could stay capped. Please monitor nowcast trends for evolving CI chances.
... E Iberia ...
Another day with impressive CAPE/shear parameter but strongly capped conditions. ENS data supports a few mountain storms, which won't move off the orography. We added a confined level 1 for a local hail/gust and rain risk, but confidence is low regarding CI.
... Far NE Germany to far NW Poland ...
During the overnight hours, scattered thunderstorms occur offshore but also along the coasts in weak shear and up to 800 J/kg MUCAPE. Slow moving storms (temporarily moving parallel to the background flow in line segments) could bring a few bursts of heavy rain and a coastal waterspout risk with enhanced CAPE3. No level seems necessary for this event.
... Russia ...
Some organized multicells are possible deeper into Russia with no level issuance due to no real focus for peak severe. Some hail, gusts and heavy rain occurs.
