tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-376789282010-01-06T16:56:17.828ZOscar van der Veldenoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-25175595865196809202009-10-18T11:44:00.004Z2009-10-18T12:17:25.126Z

We profited from a rare sunny spell Tuesday afternoon at ECSS 2009 in Landshut, Germany and had our group photos taken! Click the images for a larger version (1 MB each):Top row, left to right:1. Paul Knightley, 2. Chuck Doswell, 3. Oliver Schlenczek, 4. Christoph Gatzen, 5. Tomas Pucik, 6. Marko Korosec, 7. Pieter GroenemeijerBottom row: 1. Johannes Dahl, 2. Helge Tuschy, 3. Harold Brooks, 4.

Oscar van der Veldenoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-16432174205400102622009-10-12T07:04:00.004Z2009-10-18T11:28:33.700Z

This week (12-16 October) most of ESTOFEX is participating at the European Conference on Severe Storms (ECSS) in Landshut, Germany. During this time, forecasts may not appear. Thanks for your patience!

Oscar van der Veldenoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-78943331618286342282009-09-03T19:01:00.006Z2009-09-03T19:41:59.689Z

Starting September 8th, the ESTOFEX forecast maps indicate the probability of thunderstorms in more detail. By using two lines, areas with three different levels of probability are indicated.Low probability: 0 - 15%Medium probability: 15 - 50%High probability: 50 - 100%The probabilities refer to the chance of thunder within a distance of 40 km of a point. The areas are

Oscar van der Veldenoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-66459271173233838092009-06-08T11:13:00.006Z2009-06-08T12:10:09.131Z

A severe thunderstorm outbreak occurred over parts of western and central Europe on Monday, May 25th, and Tuesday, May 26th. The synoptic maps on both days featured favorable conditions for severe thunderstorms over an extensive area. An upper-level trough moved in from the Bay of Biscay on the 25th, lifted northwards on the subsequent day and was placed over the North Sea on the morning hours of

Pieter Groenemeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02260562551174417578noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-38373747635080473082009-04-19T14:49:00.010Z2009-04-30T08:32:35.657Z

ESTOFEX has had a meeting in Prague on March 27-28th 2009. There, ESTOFEX members have discussed several subjects, including a number of ideas that already existed for a few years. The most important issues were:1) Excessive rainfall forecasting2) Probabilistic forecastingExcessive rainfall forecastingOf all threats associated with thunderstorms, flash flooding causes the most casualties and can

Oscar van der Veldenoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-1649598853504147582008-08-19T20:01:00.018Z2008-08-20T10:29:26.415Z

Many countries were affected in a belt extending from northern Italy to the Baltic Countries. Sadly enough, 8 people lost their lives due to the severe weather, most of them due to falling objects in strong wind gusts, 3 in Poland, 2 in Slovakia, 2 in Italy and 1 victim in Austria. ESTOFEX noticed the seriousness of situation a few days beforehand and an extended forecast was issued on August

Tomas Pucikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01929144580224887770noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-72583893319081807532008-08-13T16:57:00.022Z2008-08-17T10:27:25.959Z

A violent tornado has struck the communities of Hautmont and Maubeuge in northern France on August 3rd at around 20:30 UTC. Severe weather experts of the Belgian Meteorological Institute Karim Hamid and Karel Holvoet have conducted a damage survey and rate the damage F4 on the Fujita scale, with wind speeds likely exceeding 300 km/h or 90 m/s. Their report (in Dutch) can be found here. Pierre

Pieter Groenemeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02260562551174417578noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-44349248742280727532008-07-09T10:44:00.011Z2008-10-29T01:41:29.369Z

Severe thunderstorms have caused extensive damage on Sunday 6th of July and Monday 7th of July. The episode started with the development of intense supercells across the southern flanks of the Alps in northern Italy Sunday afternoon. The updated ESTOFEX forecast for this day can be found here: link. Large hailstones up to 6 cm in diameter and tornadoes have been reported to the ESWD database of

Pieter Groenemeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02260562551174417578noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-45166536469630300582008-02-10T23:15:00.000Z2008-02-10T23:25:10.582Z

Starting today, ESTOFEX will issue Extended Forecasts, offering a discussion and categorical map of a severe weather situation an extra day in advance, allowing visitors to become more aware of the developing situation early-on.The Extended Forecast is a product that will be offered depending on availability of forecasters and the apparent urgency of the weather pattern.

Oscar van der Veldenoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-57643282209523509002007-09-06T16:24:00.000Z2007-09-06T16:48:10.131Z

Next week the 4th ECSS takes place in Trieste, Italy (10-14 September)ESTOFEX contributes to this conference with two oral presentations and a poster. Three forecasters additionally present a part of their own thesis work. Detailed results on the verification of our forecasts will be presented, as well as analyses of a few interesting recent large hail and tornado cases.Very interesting talks and

Oscar van der Veldenoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-78966423944315023222007-03-11T14:32:00.000Z2007-03-11T15:05:27.595Z

In the process of "learning how to forecast thunderstorms" ESTOFEX wants to monitor the quality of its forecasts. This is of course done by comparing the weather that was forecast with that what occurred in reality. Since the spring of 2006, lightning location data and (mostly unverified) severe weather reports from the European Severe Weather Database have been plotted on the maps of old

Pieter Groenemeijerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02260562551174417578noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-1165770021407259492006-12-10T16:07:00.000Z2006-12-21T19:51:48.316Z

At least once a year ESTOFEX comes together to talk and make decisions about forecasting procedures, verification, plans for our future, and outreach. The last meeting was from 3-6 November 2006 in Linkenheim, Germany. Four of the five forecasters were attending and one active member. A lot has happened over the year. In January 2006 we had a meeting in Toulouse where we decided to use newly

Oscar van der Veldenoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37678928.post-1163881476106340122006-11-18T20:17:00.000Z2006-11-18T20:24:36.113Z

On this page we will issue news about ESTOFEX and we will have the opportunity for additional discussion on recent major severe weather events.

Oscar van der Veldenoreply@blogger.com0