Thursday, September 03, 2009

ESTOFEX starts probabilistic thunder forecasting

Starting September 8th, the ESTOFEX forecast maps indicate the probability of thunderstorms in more detail. By using two lines, areas with three different levels of probability are indicated.

Low probability: 0 - 15%
Medium probability: 15 - 50%
High probability: 50 - 100%


The probabilities refer to the chance of thunder within a distance of 40 km of a point. The areas are bounded by lines, that represent the 15% and 50% contours repectively. The 15% contour will be a thin yellow line and the 50% contour a thick yellow line. Verification results will be published as they become available. We are grateful to EUCLID for the gridded data they kindly provide us for this purpose.