FORECASTING SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS

THEORY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS

1.1 INGREDIENTS-BASED FORECASTING

1.2 INSTABILITY

1.2.1 CAPE

1.2.2 The Skew-T diagram

1.2.3 Side notes regarding CAPE

1.2.4 The choice of the parcel

1.3 LIFT

1.3.1 Lift on various scales

1.3.2 Assessing the presence of (sub)synoptic scale lift

1.4 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE MODES

1.4.1 Single-cell storms

1.4.2 Multicell storms

1.4.3 Linear convective systems or squall-lines

1.4.4 Supercells

1.4.5 Hodographs

1.4.6 The structure of supercells

CONVECTIVE WEATHER HAZARDS

2.1 FLASH FLOODS

2.2 STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS

2.3 TORNADOES

2.3.1. Supercell tornadoes

2.3.2. Spouts

2.3.3. Gustnadoes

2.4 LARGE HAIL

FORECASTING METHODS

3.1 FORECASTING

3.2 THE USE OF FORECAST PARAMETERS

3.2.1. A table of forecast parameters

3.3 PATTERN RECOGNITION

3.3.1. Upper-level features

3.3.2. Low-level features

3.3.3. Fronts

3.3.4. Examples

REFERENCES